This is the catch up game for Ireland and they come into the game in fourth position in the standings in the series, 1 point behind Scotland and 4 short of France and England. They will visit France in the final round after that, but given that England is going to Italy that weekend, the outright betting sees Ireland outsiders, with England’s 1/4 favourites and Ireland at about 7/2.
Ireland was well beaten in Round 3 back in February, 24-12 at Twickenham by England, where only a late Irish try took the margin of defeat down to 12 points. With a 19-12 home victory over Scotland, Ireland opened their tournament with a subsequent clash in Dublin with Wales which saw them come out on top 24-14.
Italy have had a terrible tournament, losing all 3 of their matches, and in 2 of those games they failed to register a point. They began by getting a hiding 42-0 off Wales in Cardiff, there was progress when they went down to France (35-22) in Paris, but they were beaten 17-0 by Scotland in Rome last time out. So far in the tournament, the Azzurri have conceded 14 tries.
With their only victory against Ireland coming in Rome in 2013, Italy lost 19 out of 20 Six Nations head to head matches against Ireland. Their 10 visits to Dublin in the Six Nations have seen them lose by an average margin of 26 points (38-12).
In last year’s Six Nations, it was the fourth year in a row where they failed to win or even draw a match in the series and they lost all 5 matches. For their last 6 Nations win, which came against the Scots in Edinburgh, you have to go back to 2015.
Furthermore, Italy have not tasted victory away to Ireland since 1997, shipping a score conceded of at least 29 points and margin of at least 18 in each of their last six trips. However, Ireland have covered the closing spread in just four of 17 matches against all opposition since the beginning of 2019, suggesting they haven’t been able to reach expectations on most occasions.
Italy have conceded the first try in all but two encounters with T1 nations since the beginning of 2019, and with a record of 17 defeats from their last 18 matches when failing to open the scoring, Ireland are likely to coast to victory should they land the first punch.
The Table
| Team | PL | W | D | L | DIFF | TF | TA | PTS |
| England | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 13 |
| France | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 13 |
| Scotland | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| Ireland | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| Wales | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 12 | 10 | 7 |
| Italy | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -72 |
The Teams
Ireland: 15 Jacob Stockdale, 14 Andrew Conway, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Hugo Keenan, 10 Jonathan Sexton (c), 9 Conor Murray, 8 CJ Stander, 7 Will Connors, 6 Caelan Doris, 5 James Ryan, 4 Tadhg Beirne, 3 Andrew Porter, 2 Rob Herring, 1 Cian Healy
Replacements: 16 Dave Heffernan, 17 Ed Byrne, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 Ultan Dillane, 20 Peter O’Mahony, 21 Jamison Gibson-Park, 22 Ross Byrne, 23 Robbie Henshaw
Italy: 15 Jayden Hayward, 14 Edoardo Padovani, 13 Luca Morisi, 12 Carlo Canna, 11 Mattia Bellini, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Marcello Vioili, 8 Jake Polledri, 7 Braam Steyn, 6 Sebastian Negri, 5 Niccolò Cannone, 4 Marco Lazzaroni, 3 Giosuè Zilocchi, 2 Luca Bigi (c), 1 Danilo Fischetti
Replacements: 16 Gianmarco Lucchesi, 17 Simone Ferrari, 18 Pietro Ceccarelli, 19 David Sisi, 20 Johan Meyer, 21 Maxime Mbanda, 22 Callum Braley, 23 Federico Mori
Players to watch
Andrew Conway scored in Ireland’s last home Test as well as their last home meeting with Italy.
Mattia Bellini is the only Italian player to score in five separate matches since the beginning of 2019, with Italy’s first try in just one
Stats
Just five of Ireland’s 17 matches since the beginning of 2019 have cleared the closing total points handicap, averaging 41 points per game
The second half has been the highest scoring half in seven of Italy’s last nine matches
The first try has not been converted in any of Italy’s three matches this year
Betting Tips
Italy +28.5 Point To Win
